Website Traffic Estimation: is There Really a Reliable Tool to Estimate Traffic??

In the last couple of months I've been working oncomprehensive webtraffic statistics website available
prospecting the Latin American market for Realfor free use. Even though it's not statistically
Estate WebPortals. In my research I've found that ataccurate (Its sampling method is not representative)
some point I needed to forecast traffic (number ofis the closest we have to an overall traffic ranking
unique users per month) in each of the studiedsystem . It tends to work pretty well with websites
countries in order to have at least an approximationwith a "Traffic Rank" higher than 100.000.
of the revenue income from Advertising.- Ranking.com: Provides information in a very similar
In my research I did not find what I was looking for:way than does: Traffic Rankings, Number of users
a simple tool or website where if you pasted theper Million, trend graphs, etc.
URL it gives you an estimate of monthly visits/usersGiven that there wasn't such a tool, I decided to
or page views. The only website that does this kindcreat one myself and I developed an Excel Model to
of estimation is however, after extesive comparisonpredict website Traffic for any site. The model I
of its results and real data that I managed to get, Icame up with is an statistical function (the average
have to say that the error margin of this site is huge.of a linear function with a 2nd degree polinomic
The variability of the estimates (compared to realfunction) and predicts the number of users based on
data) that this website has in its results is so big thatAlexa's reach. This model, with links real stats (past
I cannot recommend it for traffic estimations orreal number of users of selected websites) to
traffic forecasting.estimate users of any website, based on its reach. In
Although I couldn't find exactly what I was lookingsome cases, because Alexa's information is not
for to accurate predict traffic, In the search processaccurate always, the "Reach" has to be "translated"
I found some interesting tools that can be useful:into a relevan number before being plugged into the
- Google Insights Search: Very interesting tool. ItExcel function.
does not provide the actual number of users orAlthough it still needs a lot of work, so far the
visits, but does provide information regarding searchaverage estimation error is around 7%, which is much
volume of any keyword. You can see tendencies inbetter than the other tools I managed to find online.
search volumes and compare relative search volumesI can forward the Excel file on request and for free,
between different keywords.just in exchange of data to help me build a better
- Alexa.com: This is the oldest and mostand more accurate function.